just in case you don’t know who Richard Black is. He’s the BBC’s environmental correspondent who keeps banging on about how we’re all doomed if we don’t bow down to the great God, “Climate change”.
Maybe, just a slight niggle that something might not be true in the climate change scenario. Here he opines.
Grand statements about climate change impacts are all very well for scientists - a global average temperature rise of so many degrees Celsius, a global change in precipitation of such-and-such percent.
His closing remarks are quite illuminating.
The Met Office team explained that the impacts of melting glaciers were not included in their modelling - and that's set to be a serious issue not only in Peru but the much more populous nations around the Himalayas.
When quizzed about these figures, one of the Met Office scientists said that many other projections were based on single computer models.
Putting the range of uncertainty in the public domain from this large suite of models was, she said, "intellectually honest".
Fair enough. But the exercise also surely gives you an insight into the limits of current modelling when the various models, each of them supposed to be "state-of-the-art", reach such divergent conclusions.
As a policymaker, as a business leader, as a citizen, would you make decisions on the basis of these models? (My embolden).
The start of a damascene conversion?
Or he's sensed that some of the bandwagon's wheels are loose and look like coming off, and wants to put a little distance between him and it.
ReplyDelete"This sensitive dependence on initial conditions came to be known as the butterfly effect (it also meant that weather predictions from more than about a week out are generally fairly inaccurate)."
ReplyDeletehttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Edward_Norton_Lorenz
I find it difficult to believe that Black, after pushing so much propaganda for so many years, could have been ignorant of something so fundamental to the recognition of uncertainty in data modeling.
Therefore, his newly stated "insight into the limits of current modelling..." just seems to me like so much arse-covering.
(Oddly, wv= 'fluta', as in the 'flutter of a butterfly's wing', and 'he was having a flutter on a sure thing'?)
there is more and more of the MSM, slowly trying to sidle away from climate change. Even Moonbat has toned down his rhetoric to a surprising degree since last year.
ReplyDeleteNothing sums-up the damage done by the warmologists better than this:-
ReplyDeletehttp://www.wunderground.com/blog/sebastianjer/comment.html?entrynum=205
Black can hear the sound of fibrillating sphincters coming from East Anglia and resonating around the academic world.
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