Again the BBC are pushing their CAGW agenda again. It would seem that local flooding is all down to greenhouse gasses.
It would appear so, due to computer models. Where have we heard that before I wonder?
Of course this was from the Beeb’s ecoloon – in – chief, Richard Black.
A research team led from Oxford University ran computer models of the atmosphere as it actually was, and parallel models of the atmosphere as it would have been without the carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases that had accumulated from humanity's emissions.
This produced projections of rainfall patterns, which were then fed into a further model that translated rainfall into the impact on river basins across England and Wales.
The 2000 floods occurred when river basins filled up rapidly.
"We looked at how greenhouse gas emissions affected the odds of a flood," related Pardeep Pall, the Oxford researcher who led the study.
"We found that the emissions substantially increased the odds of a flood occurring in 2000, with about a doubling of the likelihood."
The researchers suggest there is nothing that can explain this trend except the slow steady increase in temperatures caused by greenhouse gas emissions.
"In North America, precipitation extremes correspond to the El Nino effect in pretty characteristic ways, where some regions get heavy rainfall while others receive less extreme precipitation," said Francis Zwiers from the University of Victoria in Canada.
"But we don't see these spatial variations in our study, and our models don't generate that kind of spatial structure either.
"The evidence is leading us in another direction, to a phenomena that influences precipitations in a global scale - and the only thing we can think of is the changing composition of the atmosphere."
However notice the weasel word in that last paragraph. Suggest.
I must admit I didn’t expect to read this.
This was a point taken up by Sir Brian Hoskins from the Grantham Institute for Climate Change Research, who was not involved with either of these studies.
"Both studies depend heavily on the accuracy of their computer models," he told reporters.
Once bitten, twice shy maybe?
If you want to read the whole article it is HERE as I can’t be bothered to write the whole article here.